Methodology

Every film is rated out of 100 by blending TMDB and IMDb user scores with Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes critic scores, plus recognition on prestige lists. A film at 80/100 or higher is a hit, and a person's batting average is the share of their qualifying films that are hits.

What Counts as a "Hit"?

A film is a "hit" if its combined rating is 80 or higher (out of 100).

Prestige Scoring System

To balance popular opinion with critical/historical consensus, we add prestige bonuses to films that appear on authoritative "greatest films" lists.

Rating Calculation Details

Our combined rating system works as follows:

Eligibility

Two rules decide which films are counted and which directors are ranked. A counted film is a feature film of 40 minutes or more, whether it opened in cinemas or on a streaming service. A film made for television counts only if it also played in cinemas somewhere; short films and stand-up specials do not count. All three still appear on a director’s page, marked as not counted.

Ranking: Wilson Score Lower Bound

Directors are not ranked by raw batting average alone. Instead, we use a Wilson score lower bound -- a confidence-adjusted score that accounts for sample size.

Team Builder: how the projection works

The Team Builder is the one place on the site that makes a claim about the future rather than reporting the past, so it is held to a different standard: a projection never appears without the range around it.

Data Sources

We pull from multiple data sources to build as complete a picture as possible:

Why "Moneyball"?

In 2002, the Oakland Athletics used statistical analysis to field a competitive team on a fraction of the budget of richer clubs. The insight — called Moneyball — was that conventional wisdom about talent was wrong, and the numbers told a different story. Movie Moneyball applies the same logic to film: instead of relying on awards, critical reputation, or name recognition, we calculate a simple data score for every director, actor, writer, and DP. The numbers surface who reliably delivers great films, across career eras, budgets, and genres.

Questions or Suggestions?

This methodology is transparent and open to feedback. If you have suggestions for improvement, please open an issue on our GitHub repository or contact us.

How these numbers work: Methodology